Shifting demographic patterns, the growing impact of technological change, and economic globalization will shape work in the United States in the next 10 to 15 years, according to a recent report issued by the RAND Corporation.

Understanding "how these trends will evolve and affect the size and composition of the labor force, the features of the workplace, and the compensation structures provided by employers" will contribute to the formation of sound labor policy, according to the report by RAND's Labor & Population Program.

The key findings identified in the study are:

• Workforce growth will slow dramatically over the next several decades. Between 2000 and 2010, the annual growth rate is projected to equal the 1990s rate of 1.1%. Then the rate is expected to drop to just 0.4% in the following decade then drop again to 0.3% between 2020 and 2030. The slowing growth rate is attributed to a 25% decline in the birthrate following the end of the baby boom in the mid-1960s and also partly because of a trend toward earlier retirement by men. The influx of immigrant workers and women into the workforce has counteracted these forces so that the workforce has continued to expand--but at a slower rate.



• The technological advances experienced in IT over the last several decades have been remarkable and the pace of change is expected to continue for the next decade or more. Technology has great potential to support worker education and training. While technology has many benefits for the workforce, such as increased productivity, it also forces workers to maintain their skills through lifelong learning. Workers with fewer skills will command much lower salaries and risk losing jobs to better-skilled workers, both domestically and internationally.



• Economic globalization will continue to tie the economies of the world together even more so than in the past. There can be short- and longer-term consequences for the US economy: While some sectors might experience a net loss of jobs and market share, those should be offset by gains in other sectors.

"A more mobile workforce and shifts to nonstandard employment" highlight the importance of portable benefits and tailored benefit packages, the study says. "As the workforce shifts to a more balanced distribution by age, sex and ethnicity there may be demands for alternate benefits plans, compensation and working arrangements to reflect these new realities."

As the growth of the labor force slows down, recruiting from underutilized groups can contribute to a larger workforce: older workers, women with children, people with disabilities, immigrants, and former military personnel. Employers have a variety of options at their disposal to achieve this such as offering higher wages, more attractive work conditions (e.g., flexible scheduling or telecommuting), or a wider range of fringe benefits. "The key challenge will be to identify the compensation mix that attracts the most new workers for any given total cost increase," the study says.

The study, "The 21st Century at Work: Forces Shaping the Future Workforce and Workplace in the United States," was prepared at the request of the U.S. Department of Labor to provide policymakers with a look at possible trends over the next several decades that might affect the nation's workers and employers.

Corinne Marasco is editor of ChemHR and an associate editor at Chemical & Engineering News specializing in human resource and workplace management issues.